A Parade of Horribles
Sizing up Trump's early cabinet picks
Trump has been announcing a bunch of Cabinet picks. It is hard to keep up, but I have been keeping a running tally.
Secretary of State: Marco Rubio
Rubio has served in foreign policy roles in the Senate. He is also relatively hawkish, with strong anti-China views. In both respects, this makes him stand out from other Trump picks. He is also not Ric Grenell, the MAGA extremist hoping to get the job. I cannot overemphasize what a big plus it is to not be Grenell, which is also a comment on how degraded our expectations are. Rubio previously opposed Trump, and had to apologize to him for implying that he (Trump) had a small penis. Presumably he pulled off this apology with such aplomb that Trump saw fit to put him in charge of American diplomacy.
One speculation is that Rubio was picked to open up a Senate seat in Florida for Lara Trump, who had previously been touted as a candidate in her native North Carolina. But who cares about details like residency when the richest man in the world — and his Mom — want the President’s daughter-in-law to be a Senator.
This the world we live in now. The question is why Ron DeSantis, who is term-limited, would not appoint a seat-warmer who would not compete with him if he decides to run for the seat in 2026. Watch this space.
Department of Homeland Security: Kristi Noem
Once we start looking at the other picks, Rubio starts to look like the second coming of Dean Acheson. Trump’s pick for the Department of Homeland Security is South Dakota governor Kristi Noem. Noem is probably best known for writing about killing one of her dogs in her political biography, y’know, the thing that was supposed to make people like her and want to vote for her.
She has no deep experience in homeland security, beyond keeping the North Dakotans out of her state. DHS is a huge and complex organization, a Frankenstein stitched together of many different parts. It includes natural disaster response (FEMA), the Coast Guard, the Secret Service, the parts of the government whose job it is to serve immigrants (USCIS) and the part whose job will be to round them up and deport them (ICE). Plus cyber defense. And transportation security. You get the idea.
Noem does have executive experience, but to provide some perspective, South Dakota has 13,000 employees. DHS has 260,000. Noem’s main experience with the border was getting a billionaire to fly some of the South Dakota’s National Guard down to the actual southern border for what was effectively a photo-op for a presidential campaign that never went anywhere. No-one seemed quite sure if this was legal or not, but Noem had to settle a case when an ethics watch-dog revealed that she spent $500,000 of taxpayer money on the boondoggle.
In fact, on matters legal or ethical, Noem seems to enjoy pushing the boundaries. She is a God-fearing, Christian wife and grandma, who also reportedly had a years-long affair with the douchiest of Trump bros, Corey Lewandoski. She was sued by another ethics watchdog after shilling for a cosmetic dentistry in Texas without disclosing the financial relationship. (I am sorry, but she posted this online).
Noem appears comfortable in abusing her public office for personal gain in more troubling ways. Noem’s daughter had twice tested for, and twice failed, the exam to become a real estate appraiser in the state. A state official was summoned to the Governor’s mansion, and then forced to retire, for not being cooperative enough in enabling the nepo baby’s real estate dreams.
Oh, Noem is also banned from entering tribal lands in South Dakota after accusing them of being tied up with Mexican drug cartels. Being unable to travel across the United States does seem like a bit of an issue for someone overseeing the DHS.
Noem is not the most extreme person Trump could have put in charge of DHS. But she will not do anything other than take direction from Stephen Miller and enable Thomas Holman, who are truly extreme.
Secretary of Defense: Pete Hegseth
Thus far, Trump’s picks range from “reasonable” to “not great, but likely will be confirmed.” Trump waited until the Department of Defense — the nation’s largest employer, with 2.1 million unformed personnel, and more than 770,000 civilian employees, and a budget of more than 800 billion — to go full clown show by naming a Fox News host to be the new Secretary.
Pete Hegseth had served in the military as a junior officer, and then as a reservist. His military career ended after he was disqualified with a small number of other troops from serving as a national guard official at Biden’s inauguration for extremist positions. Hegseth said it was because of his tattoo, which it turns out is associated with the Christian nationalist far right.
Anyway, a guy who the military stopped trusting to perform basic National Guard duty will now be in charge of the military. Hegseth also opposes women in combat roles, and DEI. It is important that people be promoted on their merits, says the media personality now charged with running the Department of Defense.
Hegseth also proposed a preemptive nuclear strike on North Korea. This guy will not be a guardrail against Trump’s use of military force, but an enabler.
So, Hegseth is appealing to Trump. He is a loyal Fox News guy, whose basic thesis is that the military has gone woke. Trump wants to purge the military of “woke generals” and Hegseth will support him, having previously called for Trump to “clean house.”
We can dispense with the wokeness bullshit and be real. Generals are not woke. If you heard that the leader of another country, who tried to overturn a previous election, was systematically replacing generals he disliked, you would see it for what it was. Trump does not want any more generals who might resist the use of military force against either immigrants who need to be rounded up or protestors. He does not want generals who might raise a fuss when he asks them to violate the constitution. The last Chair of the Joint Chief of Staff, Mark Milley, was worried enough about Trump after the 2020 election that he warned other military leaders to uphold their oath to the constitution, and reportedly said of a potential coup: “You can’t do this without the military. You can’t do this without the CIA and the FBI. We’re the guys with guns.” This is the type of wokeness that Trump opposes.
Hegseth’s perception of the problems bedeviling the military is reflected in his use of his Fox News platform to lobby for Edward Gallagher and other members of the military accused of war crimes. Hegseth also privately, and successfully, lobbied Trump to pardon Gallagher. It is important to understand just how bad this case was. It was not an official in a fire zone who shot off one round too many. Gallagher boasted of killing civilians, including women, to his fellow Navy Seals, who described him as “evil.” They witnessed him shooting an unarmed girl and and old man, and discussed how to protect civilians from being murdered by Gallagher. Military officials worried about the effect the pardon would have on military discipline, or on the willingness of soldiers to report illegal behavior. They may soon have a boss who sides with the people engaging in war crimes, rather than trying to prevent them.
CIA Director: John Ratcliffe
Ratcliffe is another Trump loyalist. He previously served as Trump’s Director of National Intelligence, which gives him some plausible experience for the job of CIA Director. But the more you learn, the worse he looks. His first nomination was withdrawn after it became he would not be approved for the job. But he started looking a lot better as a candidate after Ric Grenell was appointed as acting Director of National Intelligence. Again, anyone looks good compared to Grenell. After he got the job, Ratcliffe released non-credible intelligence information that implied that Hilary Clinton was secretly fomenting a plot to connect Trump with Russia in the run-up to the 2016 election. The release happened just weeks before the 2020 election, and was widely seen as an effort to help Trump. This fits with the concerns about Ratcliffe: that he values serving Trump more than the job of maintaining integrity in the intelligence services.
Elon and Vivek’s Excellent Advisory Committee
Trump also announced that Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy would form the Department of Government Efficiency. Lets just clarify a few things:
There is no Department of Government Efficiency. This is just a name Musk is using to boost a crypto currency that he has an interest in. When you call it DOGE, you are helping Musk boost his crypto. Trump cannot create a Department without Congressional permission.
Most likely, what Musk and Vivek will be asked to do is to sit on a Federal Advisory Committee. I deeply urge reporters to use accurate terminology here: these guys are sitting on an advisory committee, not running a Department. And they will likely reduce government capacity and effectiveness, not improve efficiency. Also, please don’t call the board that Trump is creating the purge military leaders a “Warrior Board” just because Trump called it that. You don’t have to follow the script assigned to you, especially when it is designed to mislead. Be a real reporter, use factual terminology, and don’t help Trump dress up authoritarianism as something else. Seriously guys, do better:
Trump, and by extension Muskawamy cannot reorganize federal agencies, or cut their budgets. Both of those powers lie with Congress. They can ask Congress to give them reorganization power, but Congress has not done so since Reagan. George W. Bush asked for such powers and was turned down. Maybe the GOP Congress will be more amenable, but it seems like a fairly pitiful way to surrender their oversight power.
Notwithstanding that Musk spends several hours a day on social media, he has a real job running large companies. Ramaswamy does not, and so it feels like a bit of a snub that he is not getting a real Cabinet gig.
All of that said, these two can do real damage to the federal government by using Schedule F power to fire people. As I’ve noted before, Musk’s extraordinary conflicts of interests with government makes giving him the power to fire federal regulators almost cartoonishly corrupt. His net worth has ballooned by tens of billions since Trump’s election on the assumption that his ties with Trump will allow him to eliminate his regulatory problems. This is the reality of Trump’s government.
Musk has called for politicizing the Federal Reserve, and is one of the major enablers and spreaders of false conspiracy theories that attack the government.
Ramaswamy claims that the President can fire 75% of federal employees. This is wrong. But my prediction that Trump would just fire a couple of thousand of federal employees using Schedule F powers is already looking wildly optimistic.
It is possible that this is an effort by Trump to placate two of his most visible supporters with a busywork committee assignment that generates a report and not much else. The report is due in the middle of 2026, so leaves a limited window for any Congressional action. In Trump’s first term he appointed an election fraud commission that amounted to nothing but was subject to transparency requirements and lawsuits.
I don’t want to be completely cynical here. Government needs modernization. A big shake-up could improve things. Muskawamy would benefit mightily just from talking with some of the technologists who have worked in and out of government in recent years (e.g. Jennifer Pahlka, folks at the US Digital Service or Code for America). They know what the problems are and how tech could help. But these problems mostly about fixing systems that are really important, but sound boring, like procurement, or making customer experience better, or establishing a permanent Secretary of Digital Transformation to modernize services in every presidential administration. Some technologists see dollar signs with Musk on board — see this video from Y Combinator about the chance to sell government software, and there will be an AI goldrush to automate administrative tasks. But Musk is talking about massive spending cuts that would necessarily target entitlements and defense spending, and Ramaswamy wants to cut a federal employee workforce that is the same size it was in 1960 when it was doing a lot less. These are not the ideas of people who want to make government better, just smaller. And it is hard to build healthy a long term organizational culture when people are terrified that they will be fired by someone who does not understand what they do, or simply does not think it should be done.
I would discuss Mike Huckabee as Ambassador to Israel, but honestly, I am exhausted. Which in a way, may be Trump’s strategy. It is possible that the new Republican Senate majority may take their advise and consent duties seriously enough to push back against one or two really wild picks. Of those listed, Hegseth is probably the most vulnerable. When Marco Rubio is your star pupil, its not a great class.
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I wonder how Congressional Republicans will feel when they're being pushed around by Musk and Ramaswamy (M&R), neither being politicians and both being arrogant. I wonder how M&R will react when they realize they can't simply fire Congressional Republicans, or anyone else for that matter. I wonder how they'll react when they realize that Trump is a lame duck from day one, and when he gives up on governing (in a couple of months) and returns to golf and grifting. I wonder how they'll react when it becomes obvious that their re-election hopes are going down the toilet as the results of what M&R will convince Trump to do are made clear and when M&R respond with "let them (voters) eat cake". I wonder how corporate CEOs will respond when Trump begins to tank the economy. How will the banks and other financial entities respond when Trump, who knows nothing, tries to control the Fed. Honestly, I think we'll see a lot of political sabotage, backstabbing, power grabs and lots and lots of leaks. Republicans already ignored Rick Scott (Trump's choice) and voted for Thune as Senate majority leader. Not that I like Thune, but Scott is worse. I don't think they'll give in to recess appointments and turn over their other means of leverage and control to M&R. Republicans will probably have a small majority in the House and if Trump pulls out any more of them to serve him that majority gets smaller until special elections are held for replacements which is a gamble. I can't wait to hear from MTG when she doesn't get a position in Trump's administration. She tends to be loud. Not only are Trump's nominees incompetent but they won't survive in the bureaucracies they'll try to run because they have no idea how these work, and how they can turn against you when they don't respect you. I wonder how the Pentagon will react to being told how to do things by a Fox News host. It's going to be ugly, and harmful, and it will implode.
You write: "Noem is the most extreme person Trump could have put in charge of DHS." I think you meant "Noem is NOT the most extreme ..." Not that it matters much anyway. There'll be a lot of folks competing for the crown, and Noem will probably be in the running.