Discussion about this post

User's avatar
Patricia Jaeger's avatar

"Or at least, NIH cannot prove that they were not associated with it [COVID lab leak conspiracy theory]." Ah yes, the scientific use of the prove a negative approach. I really wish that reporters would ask a follow up statement every time Trump or one of his collaborators lies - Prove It. They get away with lies and nonsense because there is never any pushback in real time.

Expand full comment
David E Lewis's avatar

"Look Ma, I Made a Bankruptcy Machine!"

I've been wondering about our deficit and how our current trade policy mix will change behavior.

As a side note, to the extent one intended to induce "drill, baby, drill" wouldn't tariffs on oil as OPEC flooded the global market seem wise? Or do the Saudis intend to buy oil shale projects in the US with Trump's help (remember Kushner's $2Bil)

https://on.ft.com/4jWZxuJ

The combination of tariffs (with exemptions for the well heeled but none for the buyer of cheap goods), tax cuts for the wealthy, a reduction in transfer payments to the less well off AND monetary easing (which is what Trump wants but hasn't gotten) seems to me to be a bankruptcy creating and thus wealth transfer machine, not at all a change in relative prices to induce domestic capex machine.

On your discussion of Fed revenues, I've been checking the daily Treasury statements initially to see how tariff payments are showing up but more recently, as it was just April, to see how that side of our balance sheet is doing.

Comparing fiscal year to date data from May 1, 2024 to May 1, 2025 I find:

Corporate income tax payments are $18.8B less than in 2024

SECA Payments are $48.6B higher than in 2024

Individual Withheld payments are $105.6B higher than in 2024

if trade policy becomes a bankruptcy creating machine (as I suspect it will) while corporate taxes get slashed further our primary deficit is going to spiral

Expand full comment
1 more comment...

No posts